World Coal Study

Introduction to the World Coal Study

Between 1974 and 1977 Carroll Louis Wilson, Mitsui Professor of Problems of Contemporary Technology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, organized and directed the Workshop on Alternative Energy Strategies (WAES)-a three-year study in which seventy-five people from fifteen countries examined global energy prospects to the year 2000. The WAES final report called for an immediate effort to wean the world economy from its dependence on oil and identified only two energy sources-coal and nuclear power-that could serve as substitutes before the year 2000. As there was great uncertainty about nuclear energy, it became evident that coal should be examined more closely. Towards this end, Wilson organized the World Coal Study-WOCOL-(originally termed the Coal Trade Study - COTRA) in 1978, which involved over eighty people from sixteen major coal using and producing countries (Australia, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, Netherlands/UK, Poland, Sweden, United Kingdom, United States, West Germany). The members convened several times during an eighteen-month period to develop and present an assessment of coal’s potential to meet world energy needs.

Organization of WOCOL

Modeled on the WAES project, WOCOL operated as an independent organization with no official ties to governments or private industry. Members, whether from private or public institutions, participated as individuals and were free to express their own views rather than those of a sponsoring institution. The WOCOL organizational structure was identical to the WAES structure: senior level people (Participants) directed the study while a larger, decentralized project staff (Associates) implemented WOCOL projects. Wilson selected the thirty-five Participants who in turn chose one or more Associates. As Project Director, Wilson gave overall direction to the study. The sixteen national “teams” first assembled data and projections on the supply and use of coal for their own countries. They then combined their information with data from other teams to make regional and finally global estimates. WOCOL headquarters and secretariat expenses at MIT were supported by grants from private organizations(1) and the US Government. Participants provided financial support for activities conducted in their countries and for the expenses involved in attending and sponsoring WOCOL meetings.

WOCOL Findings

The project’s two-volume final report was published in 1980. Volume I, Coal: Bridge to the Future, includes a summary of the findings and a more detailed presentation of issues considered, such as world energy prospects, coal markets and prices, and coal-using technologies. Volume II, Future Coal Prospects: Country and Regional Assessments, contains the full texts of the reports by each of the sixteen national teams. Like WAES, the findings of WOCOL were intended to be useful to industries, national governments and international bodies which make energy choices. As summarized in the New York Times on May 13, 1980, the day following the final report’s public release, the report concluded that … coal use must be tripled, and steam coal exports increased at least tenfold, if the world is to solve its immediate energy problems. What are the alternatives? Conservation alone cannot contribute enough. Nuclear power is meeting increasing resistance. Solar and other renewable energy sources cannot be developed and widely marketed until about the year 2000. So in the meantime, most of the added energy needed for moderate economic growth must (and can) come from coal.

NOTE

(1) Alfred Krupp von Bohlen und Halbach Foundation, AMAX Inc., Atlantic Richfield Company, Bechtel National Inc., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, The Rockefeller Foundation, US Department of Energy.

From the guide to the World Coal Study records, 1977-1980, (Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute Archives and Special Collections)